PRICE Systems

While teaching an introductory TruePlanning for Software Estimating course this week at an Army location, I was asked to follow up with a clarification on “percent adapted” calculation. 

The official PRICE training materials definitions are:

• Percent of Design Adapted - the percentage of the existing (adapted code) design that must change to enable the adapted code to function and meet the software project requirements;

• Percent of Code Adapted - the percentage of the adapted code that must change to enable the adapted code to function and meet the software project requirements.

The former, Design, was received by the class as straightforward. Again, this adaptation includes architectural design changes, detailed design changes, and any necessary reverse engineering. Entered as a percentage of the Adapted Code size, this metric essentially captures the effort to modify/ enhance the underlying concepts for data and transaction algorithms.

As my class later reviewed a fellow-student’s modeling of a “real-world” example, we found that our jury was hung on the verdict of what’s really meant by adapting the latter, Code. Again, the instruction is to also enter this metric as a percentage of the pre-determined adapted code size.

But the legitimate question was: “Why isn’t it always 100%?” If we labored to already identify new code, deleted code and reused code… then isn’t any remaining modified code all adapted?

The answer, per our resident software Yoda, is consider the code in terms of modules, not just source lines. To answer what percentage of a target must change to meet new functional and project requirements, evaluate what sub-modules/ CSCIs must change and what are reused WITHIN each module. If an entire module is not modified, then it’s count is reflected in the percentage of reuse. But if module(s) have some components that are modified and some that are not, that information is captured in this latter percentage of code adaptation.

If you’ve followed my blogs, you know what’s coming next: another car example! 

Say I have an automobile to rebuild. The body, wheels & tires are fine. Even the suspension requires no modification. (No car guy would ever accept not spending time & money on handling too, but suspend your disbelief for now).

Only the motor needs “adaptation”… but also, only in certain areas. The ignition, fuel injection, water pump, A/C & exhaust all require little to no adaptation. But the cylinder heads, valves, camshafts, rods, pistons & crank all must be worked on. My percentage of motor component “code” that actually needs modification is clearly less than 100%. 

Of course, the changes made above are a function of what requirements we're trying to acheive, e.g., horsepower, torque, RPM, etc.  Likewise, this analogy holds true in typical software modification. What we are given, as previous deliverables, is more than just total lines of code. It’s functioning modules/ systems that may, or may not, require some re-work under the hood. 

Agree?

Additional insight into how TruePlanning defines and utilzes these inputs is detailed in the True Software White Paper.

At the 2011 ISPA Conference, I conducted a ½ day workshop How To Develop Data-Driven Cost Estimating Relationships  in TruePlanning. The attendees at the workshop learned how to import their own data into TruePlanning and develop custom Cost Estimating Relationships. We covered three case studies:

·         In the UCAS case study we demonstrated how we can build CERs at a higher level to provide a test of reasonableness to the CAPE.

·         In the SRDR case study we demonstrated how we develop a CER to estimate SLOC based on historical data and use the results to within the new code parameter of the UCAS Reconnaissance software estimate. 

·         In the Aircraft case study we demonstrated how we can build higher level trend lines across various aircraft system platforms and classes of aircraft to compare as “ball-park” estimates.

In each case, the attendees learned how to work with real data and develop CERs traceable back to the original data points that generated them. This was a “hands-on” workshop and everyone had a chance at generating a number of CERs. Overall, we had a very successful session and provided a new and exciting capability to our TruePlanning framework.

I also wanted to share with you a few takeaways from this workshop.

• By setting up the trend lines equations in the Equation Cost Object, estimators can create libraries of data-driven CERs for future projects
  • All data used to develop the equation can be attached to the CER to identify datapoints and methodology used.
• The power of this approach is that the CERs are integrated into the TruePlanning framework and can be used with other cost objects (H/W, SW, IT, etc)
• Libraries of CERs can be shared among projects.
• CERs are “white box” and auditable both in terms of the trend line equation and underlying data points.
• CERs represent an “estimating database” in addition to TruePlanning Cost Objects.

If you are interested in obtaining a copy of the workshop presentation including the data files and results, please e-mail me at Zachary.Jasnoff@pricesystems.com .

I’m on my way home from the ISPA/SCEA (International Society of Parametric Analysts, Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis) Conference held in Albuquerque this week.  Attendance was very good (2nd best in the conferences history) and as the content seemed especially good this week.  I attended lots of good talks on topics ranging from SEPM (System Engineering, Project Management) cost estimating, Joint Confidence Levels, Software Estimating, Affordability,  Agile software development and estimating for Enterprise Resource Planning Systems.   Of course, just because the topics are good and well presented doesn’t mean I have to agree with everything that gets said.

One particular talk entitled “Function Points, One Size Fits All” got me a little worked up.  It seems as though there is an on-going and completely unnecessary amount of energy devoted by some to convince the software community that we need to settle on a single method of measurement for software.  The author makes some really good, credible points.  Function Points are a much better method of measuring software if your intent is to compare productivity across or within specific industries.  They help eliminate development technologies, programmer inconsistencies and software architecture decisions from an analysis of how productive an organization is at delivering business value to their customers.

Having said this, I firmly believe that sometimes SLOC (Source Lines of Code) are a better tool to help organizations estimate the costs of the software development projects they are planning.  Knowing how your productivity stacks against the industry is great information when you are looking for process improvement or identifying best practices.  But if you want to know how much the next project is going to costor how many months it will  be before you can deliver content, your own history is much more relevant than the industries.  Not that your history can’t be in Function Points – it just doesn’t have to be.  Many of the weaknesses sighted with SLOC – while they certainly can be considered weaknesses) -aren’t really noticeable when working within a certain context.  Within an organization, software development projects are often similar to previous projects, targeted at similar markets and are being developed by similar teams with similar (on average) coding styles. And SLOC Counting processes can be institutionalized within an organization. When this is the case, SLOC counts are just as good, if not better, than Function Point Counts and probably much easier to count since their count can be automated and does not require certified specialists.

The author contends that SLOC is a bad option because it is hard to estimate early on.  I contend the same is true with Function Points - which if the Counting Practices Manual is followed to the letter – one is required to make an assessment of not only all transaction but also all the data element types and record element types.  The author contends that SLOC is a bad option because there is no standard for what a SLOC is.  I contend that the same can be said for Function Points.  Perusal of the International Software Benchmark Standards Groups’ (ISBSG) database shows that there are several different ‘standards’ for counting Function Points – because one standard was not deemed sufficient by many in the community to meet all software measurement needs.

Don’t get me wrong – I do not disagree with many of the assertions the author made, only the notion that one size fits all.  Let’s be real – software measurement is not easy and there are many different ways to approach it depending on the reasons for the measurement and the circumstances around those needs.  Function Points are a good tool to have in your software measurement tool box, so are Source Lines of Code, Use Case Points and user Stories.  It’s true that if all you have is a hammer every problem is a nail.  Fortunately we have many different tools and should feel empowered to choose the right tool depending on the current need.

If I Google the phrase “cloud computing” I get about 49,900,000 hits.  That’s a lot of hits – more than 10 times the hits I get if I Google “service oriented architecture.”  This made me think that cloud computing is an area I needed to learn more about.

So what are we really talking about when we talk about cloud computing?  “The cloud” is a generally accepted euphemism for the Internet.  End users access computing assets from the cloud using a model similar to one that homes and offices use to get electricity and water.  Instead of purchasing or licensing hardware, software or other computing infrastructure, businesses contract with cloud providers for access to software applications, data storage and recovery services, development platforms, etc.   This access is through the Internet (or an Intranet in cases where a private cloud is employed) so in the extreme case a  business could potentially meet all their computing needs with only enough in-house assets to support browser based computing. 

According to National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Cloud computing solutions deliver on-demand self-service, ubiquitous network access, location independent resource pooling, rapid elasticity and measured service.  Clearly there are lots of potential benefits for a business to move to the clouds, especially small to medium businesses and start-ups.  There are also some challenges and risks associated with cloud migration.

We at PRICE are conducting on-going research in the area of cloud computing in order to help decision makers assess the costs and benefits associated with migrating their business to the clouds.  On June 14th I am teaming  with the Data and Analysis Center for Software (DACS) to present a webinar detailing what I’ve learned and where the research is taking us.  Click here to register

Going to ISPA SCEA in New Mexico?  If so, join us for a workshop on data driven cost estimating.  Register: http://www.pricesystems.com/services/predictive_modeling_schedule.asp#/?i=3

Description:  Building transparency and traceability into your estimating process leads to more defendable estimates.  This hands-on workshop demonstrates how historical data is transformed into predictive models.   You will learn how your organization’s data can be synthesized into custom models that can be employed in support of third party models within a single analytical framework. 

Participants will learn:  (1)   To develop system level estimating relationships to provide a test of reasonableness and historical cross-check to proposed estimates. (2) To develop sub-system level relationships that estimate Software Lines of Code based on requirements. (3)  To develop historically-based relationships across classes of aircraft systems in support of “ball-park” estimates based on specific program actuals.

Location:  2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference /  Hyatt Regency Albuquerque - Fiesta 1-2 /  June 7^th, 2011 /  9:00 am – 1:00 pm (includes complimentary lunch).  Hope to see you there!  To register go to: http://www.pricesystems.com/services/predictive_modeling_schedule.asp#/?i=3

I was recently asked by a client to provide a synopsis of what TruePlanning offers in response to the Ashton Carter Memorandum – Implementation of Will-Cost and Should-Cost Management. In the memo, the Undersecretary of Defense AT&L listed “Selected Ingredients of Should Cost Management”. It was interesting to note how much capability is provided by TruePlanning to effectively support efficient should cost management. In this month’s blog, I will share with my response to our client with you.

Agile software development practices are predicated on the following tenets as introduced in 2001 in the Agile Manifesto [1]

•  Individuals and interactions over processes and tools
•  Working software over comprehensive documentation
•  Customer collaboration over contract negotiation
•  Responding to change over following a plan

Agile development processes rely on experienced, highly skilled people communicating with clients and each other to deliver software that provides the clients with the most value for the money they spend.  This requires both developers and consumers of software to accept the reality that things will change over the course of the project and that the software that is eventually delivered may not be the same as that was envisioned when the project was first kicked off.

At any given time, the agile software development team is only working on the feature that the customer currently feels is the most valuable.  Estimation is performed by the team (including developers, BAs, QAs and customer representatives) and is only focused on the feature that is currently on deck.  At the end of an iteration, the customer has an opportunity to review the implementation to date and can reprioritize remaining features based on changes in their requirements, market or expectations.  So estimating beyond the current feature doesn’t really make agile sense.

Unfortunately, the fact that estimation doesn’t make sense for the agile team does not mean it doesn’t make sense for the business.  The business needs to see the forest not just the trees.  Customers need an idea when their software will be delivered, businesses need to prep the market for new products and features, businesses need to be able to optimize resource allocations across many projects, etc.   This of course begs the question of how to perform an estimate for software when you really don’t know exactly what software you’re going to build.  As an industry, we’ve been pretty unsuccessful estimating software projects even when we think we have a handle on the end product – how can we be successful with so much uncertainty.

First we accept uncertainty and commit to incorporating uncertainty into our estimates.  Once we’ve made that commitment we are then free to pursue one of many top level estimating techniques to help us get our head around a likely range of values for cost and schedule based on what we currently know about the software project.  Parametric techniques are particularly suitable for this task especially for an organization that has some historical data from previous agile projects.  Parametric estimating models like TruePlanning for Software provide a repeatable framework through which an organization can study their past performances on similar projects (similar number of features, similar market, similar customer, etc) and use what they learn to perform estimates on the project at hand.   The amount and nature of the similarities should guide the amount of uncertainty in the estimate.  Organizational history can be used to map Story Points or User Stories to a size measurement such as source lines of code, function points or user points.  Analysis of performance on past projects can inform decisions about productivity and other project drivers.  This information can be used to drive the parametric algorithms to develop estimates for cost, effort and schedule.

Since we have already acknowledged that we didn’t get the question right, it’s unreasonable to assume that the answer will be ‘the right answer’.  What we do come away with is a range for cost, effort and schedule which will give decision makers realistic data to work with. If we have properly studied our history and thoughtfully assessed uncertainty, we can present these ranges with a quantifiable degree of certainty. 

What process does your organization employ to plan around agile induced uncertainties?

[1] Agile Alliance, “Agile Software Development Manifesto”, Feb 2001, available at www.agilemanifesto.org (retrieved January 2010)

Happy Easter!  What is the weight of the world's largest jellybean?  Submit your answer in the comments section!

What is the aircraft speed record, in mph or km/h, for an unmanned jet airplane?  Submit your estimate in the comments section!

The following is a collection of some of the more common installation issues.  If you have additional questions, concerns, or issues with any upgrade or installation, please call our Technical Support line anytime at:  1-800-43-PRICE.

Default Password Override

TP’s default password may not be strong enough based on your security policy.  Please review your specific requirements for passwords and follow the directions below to change the default:  When you get to the screen, uncheck the “Use Default Password” and enter a valid password based upon your specific security settings.  Then click next and continue the installation process.

Existing TruePlanning Installations

If TruePlanning 2008 SR2 is currently installed, it is recommended that users export their projects, then uninstall TruePlanning, making sure to backup their database when prompted to do so during the uninstall. The uninstall of TruePlanning can be initiated from the Control Panel.  Also, please select the option to uninstall MSDE when prompted during the uninstall.  Once this is complete, install the new version of TruePlanning, making sure to manually import the projects which were exported from the older release once the installation is complete.  Upgrades from TruePlanning 2009 and above do not require TruePlanning  to be uninstalled as the TruePlanning 2010 installation will automatically upgrade the projects in the database; however, it is recommended that users still export their projects manually and before the upgrade to be safe. 

Administrative Rights

The user installing TruePlanning requires administrator rights on the machine.  On Vista it is advisable to launch the installation of TruePlanning by navigating the “Setup.exe” file on the TruePlanning CD and initiating the installation using the “Run as Administrator” option. This option is available from the right click menu in Windows Explorer (My Computer). 

XmlLite

XmlLite is a resource provided by Windows to perform certain XML parsing abilities. It is a prerequisite for installing TruePlanning 2010. If TruePlanning 2010 is installed on a computer that does not have XmlLite, and error will occur when TruePlanning is launched.  The installation will not produce any errors or warnings. This error is Windows XP specific. Vista and Windows 7 contain the XmlLite natively. Normally XmlLite is installed when Internet Explorer 7.0 (or newer) or Windows XP SP3 are installed. Installing either of these resources should resolve the error.  Some customers are not able to install IE 7.0 or Windows XP SP3 and should therefore install XmlLite directly. It is available from Microsoft at: http://support.microsoft.com/kb/915865. It should be noted that TruePlanning 2010 has features that rely on Internet Explorer 7.0 or higher. Some of the Calculators contained in TruePlanning will not function properly without Internet Explorer 7.0 or higher.  Therefore, if possible, upgrading Internet Explorer is the preferred option. 

MSXML6 SP2

There is a known issue installing TruePlanning 2010 on computers that have Windows XP SP3 and MSXML6.0 SP2 installed.  The issue occurs because of an incompatibility between SQL Server 2005 Express and MSXML6.0 SP2. This issue is described by the following Microsoft Knowledge Base article: http://support.microsoft.com/kb/968749. MSXML6.0 SP2 is installed by the Windows XP Service Pack 3. This is not an issue on Vista.  The above MS KB article provides a fix for the issue. It is advisable to execute the fix before attempting to install TruePlanning 2010. It is possible to identify computers that have had MSXML6.0 SP2 installed by examining the “Add/Remove Programs” feature under the Control Panel. If the issue in encountered during the installation of TruePlanning it can be identified by the failure of SQL Server to install. The failure will be identified as pertaining to MSXML6. This can be ascertained after the installation has been exited, by examining the log of the SQL Server installation. The summary of the SQL Server 2005 Express installation can be found at the location defined by the following support page: http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms143702%28SQL.90%29.aspx. If the error has been encountered please contact PRICE System’s Support for help resolving the issue.

In mph or km/h, what is the average cruising speed of a Boeing 737 jet?  Submit your estimate in the comments section!

In 1961 at the MIT Centennial, John McCarthy opined “if computers of the kind I have advocated become the computers of the future, then computing may someday be organized as a public utility just as the telephone system is a public utility…. the computer utility could become the basis of a new and important industry”  [1].  In 2006, Amazon Web Services was launched providing computing on a utility basis.  Since that time the notion of cloud computing has been emerging and evolving.

Cloud computing is a paradigm that makes the notion of utility computing a reality.  Instead of Information Technology (IT) organizations investing in all of the hardware, software and infrastructure necessary to meet their business needs, cloud computing makes access to hardware, software and infrastructure available through the internet, generally utilizing a pay for use model.  Basically cloud computing allows an organization to adopt a different economic model for meeting IT needs by reducing capital investments and increasing operational investments, a model which is likely to offer cost savings to many organizations.

There is still a great deal of hype around cloud computing, as many vendors have their marketing engines further into the clouds then their technology supports.  Despite this Gartner predicts that by 2012 one in five businesses will not own its own IT assets. [2].  In late 2010 the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under direction from the White House told federal agencies that starting in 2012 they are expected to consider cloud first “whenever a secure, reliable, cost-effective cloud option exists.” [3]

There are certainly many reasons why an organization would consider moving at least some of their IT functions into the cloud.  In addition to potential cost savings the cloud offers the possibility of increased availability, easier collaboration, lower capital costs, scalability and virtualization.  There are of course concerns as well.  The technology is still relatively immature with no definitive set of standards for interface or compliance with regulations.  Businesses lose hands on control of their IT resources with little recourse if their IT vendor shuts down or goes out of business.  Additionally,  there are security and data privacy concerns.  There is also the fact that not all ventures into the cloud will be cost effective for the business.

This paper introduces the concept of cloud computing and discusses the potential benefits for a business as well as those things which could be barriers to adoption.  It examines the types of applications where cloud computing is an efficient cost effective solution and the types of applications where its use could be problematic or costly.  Several examples of successful cloud implementations are presented and discussed.

For a white paper describing this reearch on cloud computing email info@pricesystems.com with the code word CLOUD in the subject line.  To share your cloud computing experiences comment on this post

This FREE workshop features government and industry speakers discussing how the current fiscal environment impacts the day-to-day estimating challenges faced by government program offices and their commercial counterparts.  These events seek to bring leaders together to share ideas and experiences about their most pressing issues.

We are looking to professionals, such as you to contribute ideas and best practices.  For more information or to register:http://www.pricesystems.com/services/predictive_modeling_schedule.asp

“I think we have an obligation to work with industry to ensure that our suppliers do not just remain world class in defence, but aspire to be world-class manufactures that can withstand comparison to other industries.”

Chief of Defence Procurement, Sir Robert Walmsley

Is this a practical proposition or is it a pipe dream?  The following excerpt from Dale Shermon’s Systems Cost Engineering attempts to make the case that this type of comparison is possible.


Many of the statements in proposals and marketing literature stating the superiority of a company are anecdotal or at best qualitative evidence. It has not been possible to quantify the productivity of industry to demonstrate that one manufacturer is more efficient than another.

In the ship building industry it is possible to benchmark commercial ship yards using a metric called Compensated Gross Tonnage (CGT). CGT measures the complexity of building a ship. It is calculated by multiplying the gross tonnage by the relevant CGT coefficient (calculated by the Organisation for Economic and Commercial Development [OECD]).  However, this is only applicable to this one industry. Other metrics exist in other industries, but what is really required is a single benchmarking technique and measure.

Benchmarking with Cost Normalization.  Forty years ago, PRICE Systems developed a metric that can be used to normalize cost and support the benchmarking practices needed to reach Sir Walmsley vision.  Manufacturing Complexity represents the normalized cost density of an item that has been manufactured. It has two dimensions: technology and productivity. Hence, more than one Manufacturing Complexity can exist. As aircraft are made using different technologies and by different companies, these have various complexity figures. However, if the technology is constant, the only dimension that changes is productivity. As a result, it is possible to compare the efficiency of companies that produce similar technologies.

Supplier Assessment.  One obvious and practical application of this technique is Supplier Assessment. This technique exploits the capability of parametric models to compare organization’s normalized cost density or Manufacturing Complexity. If, on paper, you have very similar proposals, how can you judge which organization will provide the best value for money? Heritage data will determine the level of development that is required and Operating and Support Cost will establish the Through Life Cost, but if these cannot differentiate the proposals perhaps the productivity of the companies should be considered. This is not a simple comparison, but with manufacturing complexity this can be achieved easily.

This process will lead to your suppliers knowing that you are able to control them; they will need more control on themselves. It will enable you to perfect your negotiation skill, leading to more success, as better negotiation material is utilised based on technology cost drivers. A parametric questionnaire is a possible tool to enable proposal validation in minutes.  All this information can be garnered at a very early stage in a project if required, providing better estimating accuracy for the purchased items. Normalization enables a bigger data sample as previous proposals received from the same companies can be compared. This in turn enables the establishing of trends. Are the suppliers becoming more or less efficient? Ultimately, these comparisons can be used to determine preferred suppliers.

Conclusion.  This method of benchmarking a project or company can be used for all environments. With the ability to move across environments it is possible to compare commercial and military organisations equally. Decisions and judgments can be made between Commercial and Military suppliers where no military competition exists.  It is possible to assess the productivity of an organisation or country at System, sub-system and equipment levels. The technique can be used to compare the whole cost or just the labour cost if that is the focus of your efficiency drive.

It is possible to determine preferred suppliers on a justified basis, or alternatively it is possible to demonstrate the efficiency of your organisation when the customer is skeptical about your productivity or your drive to improve productivity.

Finally, many organisations already have a license to use the PRICE models and over 8,000 people worldwide have been trained and are familiar with the PRICE methodology. This is not a new idea, PRICE has been established since 1975, but this new application of an established technique can help decision maker take the right decision regarding source selection cross industry and national companies. Alternatively, it can enable industry to demonstrate, with proof, that they are more effective than other solutions.