Estimating Accuracy Improves Productivity

Wednesday, September 3, 2008 by Anthony DeMarco
Productivity refers to measures of output from production processes, per unit of input. The labor and materials that go into a project are the input, and the final delivered product represents the output.

Productivity Equation

Your estimated project budget determines the planned productivity, and decomposes to a planned productivity for each individual and each unit of material.  The dynamics of the Project Management Triangle tell us that for a fixed cost (input) and schedule, if I underestimate the scope (output), then I have planned for a lower than optimal productivity.  And Parkinson's Law law tells us that "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion", so you will achieve that lower productivity.  If I overestimate the scope, then people will take shortcuts that induce errors and reduce quality resulting in rework - utimately increasing the cost and schedule (input) for a given scope (output) and achieving a lower than optimal productivity.  The best way to improve productivity is to improve estimating accuracy.  Estimating just the right amount of material and processing time to produce a product achieves the lowest input for the output.  Estimating exactly how much your people can do within a given schedule achieves the optimal output for a given input. 

To improve estimating accuracy people must become better estimators.  PRICE Systems is dedicated to providing project managers and estimators with models, benchmarks, and training so that they become more accurate estimators and improve organizational productivity. 

Comments for Estimating Accuracy Improves Productivity

Tuesday, September 9, 2008 by Chris Carter, MBDA:
Interesting paper and shows that accuracy of estimates really does matter - but how often is an estimate put forward with no indication of how accurate it might be? As estimators I think it is our duty to tell our cutsomer (management) what we assess the possible range of outcomes to be so that they can make use of this information. If only to send us back to refine the estimate/mitigate areas of risk. 3-point estimating and S-curves is one such technique for assessing and presenting uncertainty and risk.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008 by Tony DeMarco :
Chris, I agree that all estimates should be delivered with an indication of accuracy. And since the ensuing decision is usually a bid or budget number, then the estimate associated with a certain confidence level is key for the decision-maker. Thanks for the comment, it gives me a great idea for future post.

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