Zachary Jasnoff

At the 2011 ISPA Conference, I conducted a ½ day workshop How To Develop Data-Driven Cost Estimating Relationships  in TruePlanning. The attendees at the workshop learned how to import their own data into TruePlanning and develop custom Cost Estimating Relationships. We covered three case studies:

·         In the UCAS case study we demonstrated how we can build CERs at a higher level to provide a test of reasonableness to the CAPE.

·         In the SRDR case study we demonstrated how we develop a CER to estimate SLOC based on historical data and use the results to within the new code parameter of the UCAS Reconnaissance software estimate. 

·         In the Aircraft case study we demonstrated how we can build higher level trend lines across various aircraft system platforms and classes of aircraft to compare as “ball-park” estimates.

In each case, the attendees learned how to work with real data and develop CERs traceable back to the original data points that generated them. This was a “hands-on” workshop and everyone had a chance at generating a number of CERs. Overall, we had a very successful session and provided a new and exciting capability to our TruePlanning framework.

I also wanted to share with you a few takeaways from this workshop.

• By setting up the trend lines equations in the Equation Cost Object, estimators can create libraries of data-driven CERs for future projects
  • All data used to develop the equation can be attached to the CER to identify datapoints and methodology used.
• The power of this approach is that the CERs are integrated into the TruePlanning framework and can be used with other cost objects (H/W, SW, IT, etc)
• Libraries of CERs can be shared among projects.
• CERs are “white box” and auditable both in terms of the trend line equation and underlying data points.
• CERs represent an “estimating database” in addition to TruePlanning Cost Objects.

If you are interested in obtaining a copy of the workshop presentation including the data files and results, please e-mail me at Zachary.Jasnoff@pricesystems.com .

Going to ISPA SCEA in New Mexico?  If so, join us for a workshop on data driven cost estimating.  Register: http://www.pricesystems.com/services/predictive_modeling_schedule.asp#/?i=3

Description:  Building transparency and traceability into your estimating process leads to more defendable estimates.  This hands-on workshop demonstrates how historical data is transformed into predictive models.   You will learn how your organization’s data can be synthesized into custom models that can be employed in support of third party models within a single analytical framework. 

Participants will learn:  (1)   To develop system level estimating relationships to provide a test of reasonableness and historical cross-check to proposed estimates. (2) To develop sub-system level relationships that estimate Software Lines of Code based on requirements. (3)  To develop historically-based relationships across classes of aircraft systems in support of “ball-park” estimates based on specific program actuals.

Location:  2011 ISPA/SCEA Joint Annual Conference /  Hyatt Regency Albuquerque - Fiesta 1-2 /  June 7^th, 2011 /  9:00 am – 1:00 pm (includes complimentary lunch).  Hope to see you there!  To register go to: http://www.pricesystems.com/services/predictive_modeling_schedule.asp#/?i=3

I was recently asked by a client to provide a synopsis of what TruePlanning offers in response to the Ashton Carter Memorandum – Implementation of Will-Cost and Should-Cost Management. In the memo, the Undersecretary of Defense AT&L listed “Selected Ingredients of Should Cost Management”. It was interesting to note how much capability is provided by TruePlanning to effectively support efficient should cost management. In this month’s blog, I will share with my response to our client with you.

In the February 2011 issue of National Defense, I was struck by the article “Uncertain Path Ahead for Military Truck Fleet”[1]. This article centered on the best strategies for modernization of the aging fleet of Humvees. The recapitalization of 150,000 Army and 25,000 Marine Corps Humvees is creating a “fix or buy new” dilemna for decision makers. According to the article, GAO analyst Michael J. Sullivan should include a “cost-benefit analysis that would minimize the collective acquisition and support costs of the various truck programs, and reduce the risk of overlap or duplication.

The TruePlanning model is an excellent framework to conduct the vigorous cost-benefit analysis called for by GAO.  Having recently completed in-depth AoA’s on two high profile programs, outstanding results were obtained and used by decision makers at the highest levels.

Conducting an AoA using the TruePlanning framework and models would introduce the type of rigorous analytics needed to support the DoD’s vehicle strategy while satisfying the GAO call for cost-benefit analysis. Within the model, each alternative could be structured for both its acquisition and lifecycle profile. This would contain Humvee recapitalization profiles for armored, unarmored and even vehicles that have surpassed their economic useful life. In addition, other alternatives such as JLTV, MRAP, next generation Marine Corps personnel carriers and new production Humvees could be modeled as well. Cost-benefits can also be modeled via TruePlanning’s specialized benefit objects.

In sum, complete force-structuring analysis can be accomplished within the TruePlanning framework. Coupled with optimization tools such as ModelCenter, decision-makers have an analytical way of removing uncertainty for modernizing an aging truck fleet balanced with economic realities.  If you are interested in how force-structuring can be accomplished within TruePlanning, I would be happy to share with you a paper a presented at DoDCAS last year on the subject. Just a post a comment with your request.